Passan's latest deadline updates: Top remaining trade targets, Garrett Crochet's stance and more (2024)

Baseball's trade season finally kicked into gear late Thursday with perhaps the biggest name who will move at this deadline, Randy Arozarena, going to the Seattle Mariners. As grim as that might sound to those hopeful for fireworks at the end of the month commensurate to those at the beginning, it's a reflection of where the market has gone.

The New York Mets were at one point considering trading Pete Alonso -- and then they got good. The Toronto Blue Jays intend to deal away a number of players ... but not Vladimir Guerrero Jr. While the Detroit Tigers could get a king's ransom for Tarik Skubal, they're not inclined to move him. And the Chicago White Sox, though willing to listen on Garrett Crochet and Luis Robert Jr., are facing unforeseen obstacles in moving the former and teams not yet willing to meet their asking price on the latter.

Things change, of course, and with the 6 p.m. ET deadline on Tuesday, July 30, fast approaching, teams on both sides of the add-subtract coin might get desperate and do something out of character. One general manager on Thursday lamented the lack of high-end talent available and said: "I want to do something stupid."

Maybe he'll get that opportunity. For now, though, the biggest names being discussed are from a small group of teams: Miami (Jazz Chisholm and Tanner Scott), Tampa Bay (Isaac Paredes and Zach Eflin), Detroit (Jack Flaherty) and the Los Angeles Angels (Luis Rengifo, Tyler Anderson and Carlos Estevez). It's a grim landscape. Here, according to major league sources involved with negotiations across the sport, is how this deadline got here and where it's set to go next.

The news that Crochet, one of the breakout stars of the 2024 season, plans to pitch through the end of the regular season and skip a potential playoff run with a new team unless he receives a contract extension stunned GMs around the game who had expressed interest in acquiring him from the White Sox.

"Why," one GM asked, "would I want to get a guy who doesn't want to pitch in the playoffs?"

From Crochet's perspective, it's not that simple. Already his plan to pitch the entire regular season is exceeding expectations coming into the year, at which point he had spent his first four seasons as a reliever with 73 career innings pitched and a Tommy John surgery on his résumé. His stunning evolution into a front-line starter -- he has a major league-best 157 strikeouts with only 25 walks and a 3.07 ERA in 111⅓ innings -- had come with questions about how to best handle him down the stretch.

Crochet, 25, answered them Thursday: By not potentially jeopardizing his shot at a massive payday by interrupting what he believes is a routine that will keep him healthy. It's a similar tack to the one taken by Houston Astros closer Josh Hader, who set specific rules on his usage while with the Milwaukee Brewers, went into free agency without a major arm injury and signed a five year, $95 million deal with Houston last offseason.

The calculus for Crochet, who, like Hader, is represented by CAA, is similar: An extension would guarantee him security against a potential injury and allow him to pitch without concerns about how his usage will affect his future. It's a move more often seen in football holdouts than baseball, where relief pitchers are treated as more fungible than starters, whose workloads have decreased drastically over time.

Crochet's approach -- no mandated shutdown to preserve his innings for October or move to the bullpen -- took aback teams that were under the impression a deal for Crochet would not require an extension, according to sources. Part of the allure of Crochet, beyond his elite fastball-cutter combination, was the well-under-market salaries he's due each of the next two seasons before reaching free agency. Because of his injury history and lack of innings, Crochet is making $800,000 -- just $60,000 above the league minimum -- in his first year of arbitration. Regardless of how well he performs for the rest of this season and next year, Crochet will make far less than most front-line starters because arbitration is a precedent-based system and significant year-over-year jumps are not standard.

Further, reaching an extension on a deal for a player with Crochet's résumé would take months under normal circ*mstances. His asking price would be over nine figures -- perhaps in the neighborhood of Tyler Glasnow, who himself signed a five-year, $136.5 million extension after Tampa Bay traded him to the Los Angeles Dodgers in December. Even if a team's model suggests he would be worth that, the initial offer would be far lower. The prospect of a team giving Crochet more in millions than the number of innings he has pitched as a big league starter is dubious.

Before he informed the team of his perspective Thursday, Crochet was still a possibility to remain with the White Sox through the end of the season. Assuming only contenders continue to vie for his services, it will either take a team willing to lavish him with a new deal -- which removes a number of lower-revenue franchises from the equation -- or a team willing to take the risk of trading for Crochet and convincing him to amend his plan. And even in the latter case, the risk itself will be baked into trade offers, lessening the return packages the White Sox must consider.

The consequences for Chicago were immediately clear: Any hope of reaping a franchise-changing package for Crochet before July 30 took a substantial hit Thursday. It's the trade deadline. It could still happen. Chicago GM Chris Getz is a dealmaker. But the likelier outcome is that Chicago revisits moving him this winter -- provided Crochet makes it through the last two months of the season healthy.

The list of top talents who could stay put doesn't end with Crochet. The ask by the White Sox for Robert, their dynamic 26-year-old center fielder, has been understandably high, leading to little traction on a deal. The lack of movement is nonetheless startling considering the utter dearth of impact bats available.

Teams starving for offense long for Toronto to make Guerrero available -- and are hopeful that the Blue Jays' public-facing attitude toward any deal is simply a negotiating tactic to drive up the return. (They also acknowledge this is unlikely.) Oakland, according to teams seeking outfield help, is leaning toward not moving Brent Rooker, who hit his 24th home run Thursday night, is batting .289/.366/.578 this year and still has three years of team control after this season. Texas, which was on the verge of punting 2024, has won five consecutive games and is 2½ back of Houston for the American League West lead.

The sudden tightness in the division played at least a small part in Seattle's acquisition of Arozarena for outfield prospect Aidan Smith, right-hander Brody Hopkins and a player to be named later. While neither ranked high on Seattle's public prospect lists, both are arrow-up guys whom evaluators saw as a good return for Arozarena.

It's no surprise Tampa Bay leapt at moving Arozarena to Seattle, a frequent trade partner whose offensive struggles lost the Mariners a 10-game lead in the AL West. The Rays recognize value as well as any organization, and in this market, nothing beats productive bats. It's why GMs across the game expect the Rays to deal Paredes, their All-Star third baseman. As good as he is, Paredes plays the same position as Junior Caminero, one of the top prospects in baseball. Any Rays veteran making money -- from first baseman Yandy Diaz to second baseman Brandon Lowe to relievers Pete Fairbanks, Jason Adam, Colin Poche and even Garrett Cleavinger -- could be dealt.

Eflin is a popular name, even with his $18 million salary in 2025, and could move quickly. Fedde checks every box possible: good stuff, good performance, good salary (around $10 million through the end of 2025). Particularly if Crochet stays, Fedde will go -- closer to the deadline, unless a team jumps the market. The most productive starter of the bunch is Flaherty, a 28-year-old with a 2.95 ERA and 133 strikeouts and 19 walks in 106⅔ innings. All of the teams looking for starting pitching -- Baltimore, Cleveland, San Diego, Milwaukee, St. Louis, Houston, Minnesota, Boston -- are competing for a finite number of playoff-ready arms, with Toronto's Yusei Kikuchi, Colorado's Cal Quantrill and Cincinnati's Frankie Montas borderline candidates.

The other most desirable starting arm comes from a team holding several deadline chips: the Los Angeles Angels. The left-handed Anderson, who lowered his ERA to 2.91 in his most recent start, is under contract for $13 million, a relative bargain, next season. In Rengifo, the Angels have a .300-plus-hitting infielder who's not a free agent until after 2025 at a reasonable salary ($4.4 million) in a market with next to no starting infielders and a half-dozen teams seeking infield help.

What sort of return they get for Estevez, an impending free agent, will be a bellwether for how much of a subtractors' market this really is. Typically, soon-to-be-free-agent relievers don't bring massive returns, though Estevez and Scott, the Marlins' left-handed closer, may be the exceptions. Miami, which made the first trade of the week when it sent left-handed reliever A.J. Puk to Arizona for slugging infielder Deyvison De Los Santos and center fielder Andrew Pintar, will be among the busiest teams over the next 96 hours. Scott is gone. Center fielder Jazz Chisholm is increasingly expected to be in another uniform by the middle of next week, too.

Because all of this doesn't happen in a vacuum, the opportunity for other teams to pivot is real. San Francisco, at 49-55 after a loss Thursday against the Dodgers, is the most intriguing. Reigning National League Cy Young winner Blake Snell has thrown well since his return from a second injured-list trip this season. But his contract is prohibitive enough to give teams pause on acquiring him. If Snell continues to pitch well, he will almost certainly opt out of the second season of his two-year, $62 million deal. If he gets hurt, it's a $31 million hit next year. Teams' greatest enemy at the deadline is uncertainty, and nobody in this market personifies that like Snell.

Other teams could follow the model of the Rays -- who, even at 52-51, are shipping out productive players -- and leverage the market to a distinct advantage.The Chicago Cubs could float second baseman Nico ho*rner, outfielder Ian Happ or even Cody Bellinger, who, like Snell, has an opt-out after this year but is guaranteed even more ($52.5 million) beyond it. The Cincinnati Reds could go beyond Montas and their free-agent-to-be relievers (Lucas Sims, Buck Farmer, Justin Wilson) and deal infielder Jonathan India or right-hander Nick Martinez (56-to-9 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 72 innings).

To other front offices, the Baltimore Orioles are the game's most fascinating team. Not only because of their incredible young core and AL-best 61-41 record, but for all the things they're capable of at this deadline.

Already they've made the rarest of trades, sending their NL-best counterpart, Philadelphia, veteran outfielder Austin Hays for reliever Seranthony Dominguez and center fielder Cristian Pache on Friday. They have likewise talked with teams about first baseman Ryan Mountcastle and center fielder Cedric Mullins. Rare is the league favorite to reach the World Series that's as willing as the Orioles are to send away veteran bats, but then again, rare is the team with as many All-Stars as the Orioles that seemingly has young standouts ready-made to fill the void (Coby Mayo at first, Colton Coswer in center).

Whether the Orioles do subtract, they're unquestionably adding. They've been in the Crochet conversation, but the ultimate prize would be Skubal, the otherworldly starter for the Detroit Tigers. Skubal is 27. He's not a free agent until after the 2026 season. Multiple GMs this week, recognizing what a perfect fit Skubal is for Baltimore, have asked some version of the same question.

Would you trade shortstop Jackson Holliday, the top prospect in baseball, straight up for Skubal?

The answers vary. Some are a quick yes, others a snap no and the majority a "hmmm" before coming down on either side more or less equally. The arguments for both cases are compelling.

The pro side: Baltimore already has an MVP-caliber shortstop in Gunnar Henderson. Pairing Skubal with ace Corbin Burnes would give the Orioles the best starting-pitching duo in baseball. And with Burnes hitting free agency this winter, Skubal would serve as ace insurance. The ability to count on him during Henderson and Adley Rutschman's prime years is a huge boon for an organization whose lone long-term question concerns its pitching staff.

The con side: Skubal has missed significant time due to an arm injury. Further, his projections over the next two seasons are marginally better than those of Holliday, who is still just 20 years old. Giving up an everyday player of Holliday's caliber this early in his career -- for a pitcher no less -- is a modern baseball sin. And with David Rubenstein now the Orioles' owner, they can pay for pitching in dollars, not talent.

From Detroit's perspective, it cuts both ways as well. On one hand, the Tigers desperately need bats -- their current starting shortstop, Javier Baez, is the second-least-productive player in MLB still on an active roster -- and are crushing the development game, highlighted by the best pitching prospect in baseball, Jackson Jobe. On the other, the AL Central is a winnable division with a pitching pair like Skubal and Jobe together; Detroit's shortstop of the future, Kevin McGonigle, is already in High-A at 19; and legitimate No. 1-caliber starters like Skubal are as rare as they've ever been.

The discussion is more bar chatter than realistic. The Tigers would want more than Holliday -- if only to mitigate the risk if he busts -- and the Orioles would blanch at even considering moving him. Even if it's moot, though, it's still fun to consider, if only because the game is yearning for a big move with no others on the horizon.